本文研究自1991年1月至2011年9月期間，每月來台日本觀光客人數，其目的在探討台灣開放大陸遊客觀光後，對日本來台觀光客是否產生排擠效應。 本研究使用時間序列模型預測日本來台觀光客人數，其研究結果為：使用相乘季節性ARIMA(0,0,5)(0,1,1)12模式及離群值偵測可以預測及解釋日本來台觀光客人數變化趨勢。我們發現開放大陸遊客來台觀光之後，日本來台觀光客人數受到明顯衝擊。除了探討排擠效應的原因外，並且關注未來當環境承載量無法負荷，更可能讓排擠效應更加明顯與擴大。最後提出大陸遊客來台觀光的建議及未來自由行的影響。並且指出來台觀光客人數模式建構的課題方面，依然具有探討之空間與價值存在。 In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan between January 1991 and September 2011. Our purpose is to find that whether the squeezing effect occurred on tourist arrivals from Japan after making open to Mainland China tourists. To do this, we use time series analysis model to forecast tourist arrivals from Japan. The result shows the ARIMA(0,0,5)(0,1,1)12 model with outlier detection could explain and forecast the trend about the change of tourist arrivals from Japan. We find that tourist arrivals from Japan have been impacted after making open to Mainland China tourists. In addition to explore the reasons for the squeezing effect on tourist arrivals from Japan, we also pay attention to the expansion of the squeezing effect as the environmental carrying capacity cannot support in the future. This study finally concluded some suggestions and the effect of mainland individual tourism tourists to Taiwan. Furthermore, it also reveals that the topic of model construction and practices for tourist arrivals still need to do some research for its excellence.
