| 摘要: | 本研究構想擬針對 1992 年至2012 年期間超過80 國家之銀行樣本(如商業銀行、儲蓄銀 行、合作銀行、金融控股公司等)為研究對象，涵蓋不同發展類型國家(如發展中國家、 已開發國家及轉型國家等)，主要探討國家總體層級因素如金融改革、全球金融危機、以 及銀行競爭對銀行生產力變動之影響性。預期研究成果不僅可提供全球銀行研究的實證 完整性，而且也彌補現有文獻僅針對單一國家或特定歐美區域分析的侷限性。因此，本 研究擬結合Bootstraping Panel Data Model 以及Malmquist 生產力指數所形成兩階段半參 數法估計進行實證分析，主要探討金融改革、全球金融危機與銀行競爭之國家總體層級因 素如何對銀行生產力變動產生影響。本研究預期金融規範與促進私部門監管(private monitoring)的誘因措施對銀行生產力產生正面的影響。對銀行涉入證券、保險、不動產 及非金融企業所有權有關活動的限制也對銀行生產力產生正面的影響。關於新巴塞爾協 議(Basel II)中第1 和第2 支柱的規範及資本要求以及官方監管權力等方面，預期在一般 情況下研究期間下對生產力不具統計上的顯著影響。雖然在2007 年金融危機爆發後這 些政策規範卻獲得重要且較顯著的影響效果，然而當金融壓力達到高峰時，嚴格的資本 要求與監管標準確實對銀行生產力產生正向的影響。同時，全球金融危機期間對銀行生 產力變動預期產生負向的影響，特別是銀行控股公司與商業銀行的不利影響預期將超過 儲蓄與合作銀行。預期銀行在競爭程度愈高的國家，將有助生產力變動的提升。
Using global data on bank from more than 80 countries over the period of 1992 to 2012, including different bank types (commercial bank, saving bank, cooperative bank, and bank holding company) and degree of developing country (developing country, developed country, and transitional country), this research proposal attempts to empirically investigate determinants of bank productivity change with respect to country-specific impacts of financial reforms, global financial crisis, and banking competition in context of international evidence. Research result would be expected not only to provide more comprehensive evidence on global banking study, but also to fill the gap in current literature focusing on either single country or specific region. Therefore, I would like to apply two stage estimation to conduct empirical analysis by incorporating both of Malmquist index of non-parametric method and Bootstrapping Panel Data Model. The incentive of private monitoring is expected to have positive effect of bank productivity while bank involving activities of securities, insurance, real estate, and nonfinancial ownership business is more likely to enhance bank productivity change. Regarding Pillar 1 and 2 in Basel II for bank capital requirement and supervision standard, it is generally expected to be insignificantly related to productivity change though they seem to obtain the importance following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007. Stringent capital and supervisory standards have positive productivity effects when financial pressures peak. However, stringent capital and supervisory standards are anticipated to post positive productivity effects as financial pressures peak. Meanwhile, the influence of global financial crisis on productivity changes would like to be significantly and statistically negative, in particular more harmful to commercial bank and bank holding company than saving bank and cooperative bank. Finally, banks in competitive country would enhance their productivity change. |
