本研究藉由系統動態學可以詮釋各變數間環環相扣的因果關係，進行消防機關緊急救護運作結構之分析，及資料包絡分析法(DEA)多績效衡量指標之特性，進行各消防機關效率與效能之評估分析。本研究採兩階段式的研究設計，第一階段先針對緊急醫療救護系統資源配置問題，探討人力規模、救護車規模與教育訓練之決策方案，以求系統最佳化；另以DEA探討台南縣各消防分隊之績效，接著藉由DEA法所獲得之績效資訊與未來產出之趨勢預估，提出了多階段資源分配法(MSRAA)和群體數效率規模法(GESA)策略以因應不確定的未來。 第二階段乃依據未來的產出趨勢分析以訂定不同的因應資源策略：系統動態模擬結果現有救護資源規模將無法負荷，其救護車忙碌比例會產生傷患等待救護車之情形，必須增加服勤之救護車3部及對調整配置資源的順位可取得建議，以避免資源的浪費。而MSRAA策略部分乃希望未來產出趨勢上升時，工作負荷量相平衡，並可藉由GESA來探討未來消防人力配置之最適規模。透過MSRAA與GESA兩策略，可為決策者對於「如何合理的分配資源」及「如何規劃未來資源至最適狀態」，提供一模式化與數量化之參考依據。 This thesis is based on the used of system dynamics, within which the causal relationship between variables and the impact of external environment on the system can be better investigated. By using DEA analysis and simulating the system dynamics of the Emergency Medical Service System (EMSS), the research analysed the operational structure, system behaviours, and efficiency of each fire branch in Tainan County. This thesis applied the two-stage design research method, including system dynamics and DEA analysis. In this thesis, an optimum solution to allocation of EMS resources with consideration of manpower, ambulance, and training scales is investigated by using the EMSS, and the selection of the proper resource strategy - MSRAA and GESA through the future production estimation in the second stage. The resource strategies are provided in the second stage of the two-stage design. The demands for EMS are expected to increase in the future. In other words, the current EMS resources will be insufficient, and the ratio of busy ambulances will increase. Patients may need to wait for an ambulance. The thesis indicates that 3 more ambulances should be added and the priorities of resources to be allocated to suffice future demands are simulated. The aim of MSRAA is to balance the workload of relative efficient branches with other inefficient branches when the future estimated output trend is increasing, and to discuss the future optimized scale of firefighting human resources allocation by using GESA. MSRAA and GESA are chosen while the future trend is increasing. This study indeed provides a constructed/quantitative approach of solving the dilemma issue ＂how to reasonably allocate the resources＂ and ＂how to plan the future resources to the optimized state＂ for the decision makers with profound insight.
