本文利用共整合與誤差修正模型，來探討台灣電力消費分別對實質國內生產毛額(GDP)、服務業部門實質國內生產毛額(Service GDP；SGDP)與非服務業部門實質國內生產毛額(Non-service GDP；NGDP)之間的因果關係，資料期間為1961至2007年。實證結果顯示，電力消費與GDP存在有雙向因果關係，這表示電力消費會直接影響經濟成長，而經濟成長會進一步刺激電力消費。然而SGDP對電力消費有單向因果關係，則表示電力節約政策可以實施，對服務業經濟成長不會有不良影響。NGDP與電力消費呈現雙向因果關係，表示電力消費會直接影響非服務業部門經濟成長，而非服務業部門經濟成長會進一步刺激電力消費。 The co-integration and error correction method were applied using 1961-2007 data for Taiwan to examine causality between electricity consumption and, respectively, GDP, service GDP (SGDP) and Non-service GDP (NGDP). The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and GDP, implying that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also simulates further electricity consumption. However, unidirectional causality runs from SGDP to electricity consumption. Thus, electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating service sector economic side effects. There is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and NGDP, which means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects non-service economic growth and that non-service economic growth also simulates further electricity consumption.
