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http://nhuir.nhu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/20247
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| 題名: | 動態住宅交易市場之研究 |
| 其他題名: | THE STUDY OF DYNAMIC RESIDENT BUSSINESS MARKET |
| 作者: | 胡純英
Hu, Chun-ying |
| 貢獻者: | 企業管理系管理科學碩博士班
藍俊雄
Chun-hsiung Lan |
| 關鍵詞: | 住宅交易市場;模擬;系統模式
simulation;Vensim;system model;residence business market |
| 日期: | 2008 |
| 上傳時間: | 2015-04-20 11:09:17 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 無論是實務界或學術界到經濟學界等研究範圍，不動產交易過程實為一門複雜且全方位的學科。近年來由於台灣經濟的不景氣、政策的欠缺健全，導致不動產交易市場的供需嚴重失調。有鑑於此，本研究透過以實務住宅交易市場所面臨的供需情況，針對住宅市場需求面的需求總量、需求期望，以及供給面的住宅供給總量等過程，藉由市場風險、家戶總數、中古屋數、新建住宅數、空屋數、住宅價格、貸款利息等因素的交互影響並將政策影響、平均每戶所得收入、建商意願開發量加以探討。運用Vensim 軟體將此一複雜且符合實際住宅交易市場的問題加以系統模式的建構，透過系統動態之模擬，使得實務面住宅交易市場情境得以進行動態模擬。 本研究模擬結果發現平均每戶所得收入與建商意願開發量有著正向的關係。此外當中古屋數量快速增加時，新建住宅量有下降的趨勢出現。再者本研究已成功地將長期以來對住宅交易市場僅限於在靜態探討的情況推廣到動態探討的層次。本研究乃運用Vensim套裝軟體進行模式構建與動態模擬，因此本研究具有高度的重現特性，亦即當參數臨時發生改變時，只要將其系統輸入參數加以修改就可輕易地模擬系統的行為並可與未發生改變前進行分析比較，以評估總體改變的優劣。有鑑於此，本研究對住宅交易市場而言，著實提供一有價值的決策工具。
Among the practice, academics, and economics, the trading process of real estate seems as a complicate and entire orientation issue. The cause of serious imbalance of demand/supply for residence business market is due to the depression of Taiwan’s economy and the defective policy. This study mainly investigate the supply/demand aspect for residence business market focusing on the total demand, the expected demand, the total supply of residence as well as the market risk, the total number of households, the number of middle ancient houses, the number of new houses, the number of remnant houses, the unit price of a house per level ground, the loan interest rate, and the willing of constructor are considered. The systems dynamic model is built by Vensim software to practically simulate such a complicate residence business market. The simulated results show that an average income of a household exists a positive relationship with the willing of the constructor, and when the number of middle ancient houses fast increases, the number of new houses falls down. In addition, this work successfully extends the static research to dynamic for making the study more close to reality. In summary, this study owns a repeated characteristic because its simulation procedure is conducted by packaged academic software. Actually, this study can be regarded as a valuable decision support tool because it can easily duplicate to solve other cases by changing its input parameters only. |
| 顯示於類別: | [企業管理學系(管理科學碩/博士班,非營利事業管理碩士班)] 博碩士論文-管理科學碩博士班
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| 096NHU05457023-001.pdf | | 1155Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | 檢視/開啟 | | index.html | | 0Kb | HTML | 217 | 檢視/開啟 |
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