本研究探討國防預算與國軍整體後勤活動消長之現象，以敵國之軍事實力及我國對應戰略構想之作戰需求構面下，研析我國軍為達成目標軍事能力之決策，對維持現有實際軍事能力及應予投資研發、採構新武器之整體後勤作為，結合國防預算獲得及其挹注整體後勤活動分配之關係加以探討。藉由 Vensim 軟體將此一複雜且符合實際整體後勤活動的問題加以系統模式的建構，使得實務的整體後勤活動情境得以進行動態模擬。 本研究模擬結果發現（一）國防預算不變動條件下；維持預算與投資預算呈相互排擠關係。（二）實際軍事能力之維繫、武器裝備之妥善率高低，端賴維持預算支持與投資新武器系統研發和採購無關，故若欲提昇妥善率即須增加維持費。（三）為滿足未來作戰需求，必須投資新武器系統研發及採購；當受到現實戰備狀況提昇，現有實際軍事能力須予提高妥善率時，得採行排擠投資預算或提高國防預算以滿足維持現有實際軍事能力需求。 本研究乃運用Vensim套裝軟體進行模式構建與動態模擬，因此本研究具有高度的重現特性，亦即當參數臨時發生改變時，只要將其系統輸入參數加以修改就可輕易地模擬系統的行為並可與未發生改變前進行分析比較，以評估總體改變的優劣。有鑑於此，本研究對整體後勤活動而言，著實提供一有價值的決策工具。 This paper studies dynamic relations between the defense budget allocation and the military integrated logistic activities. Based on the military threat from China and our combat requirements according to the strategy guideline, logistic activities such as new weapon procurement and research investment, etc. play the key role to maintain defensive strength. However, the success of those logistic activities depends on the decision making how much budget should be distributed to. System dynamics models are increasingly common in the analysis of policy and strategy issues. The complicated and practical integrated logistic activity system is constructed by vensim software to conduct the dynamic simulation in this study. This article reveals three points: (1) maintenance cost and investment funds discriminate against each other under the constrained budget (2) there does not exist the positive relation between maintaining military strength or readiness of weapon systems and developing or procuring new weapon systems instead of maintenance cost (3) in order to meet future combat requirement it is necessary to develop or procure new weapon systems but we should relocate or increase the defense budget to fully support maintenance cost requirement while military conflict situation goes up. This paper illustrates these points with examples from military operations. Using the proposed model, we can analysis the output by changing those key factors to evaluate the quality of policy. It shows how successful the model is used to simulate dynamically, to be a simulation-based decision support system and to upgrade the strategic level from static thinking to dynamic thinking.
