本研究探討國防預算與國軍軍備兵力消長之現象，以敵國之軍事實力及我國對應戰略構想之作戰需求構面下，研析我國軍為達成目標軍事能力之決策，應予投資獲得之軍備武力及維持運作之兵力規模，結合國防預算需求分配之關係加以探討。藉由系統動態學研究方法，將此一複雜且符合實際軍備兵力的問題加以系統模式的建構，使得實務的軍備兵力運作情境得以進行動態模擬。 本研究模擬結果發現（一）維持預算不變動條件下；人員維持費與作業維持費呈相互排擠關係。（二）軍備武器愈精良，或人力素質愈佳，其兵力規模可有效降低，惟需以提升武器裝備妥善率以維繫實際軍事能力。（三）維持預算與投資預算呈相互排擠關係，短期增加投資預算以獲得新式裝備武器時，會直接衝擊現有妥善率；長期須擴充兵力規模操作新式裝備武器，則維持預算將明顯不足。 本研究乃運用系統動態學研究方法進行模式構建與動態模擬，因此本研究具有高度的重現特性，亦即當參數臨時發生改變時，只要將其系統輸入參數加以修改就可輕易地模擬系統的行為並可與未發生改變前進行分析比較，以評估總體改變的優劣。有鑑於此，本研究對軍備兵力運作而言，著實提供一有價值的決策工具。 This paper studies system dynamic relations between the defense budget allocation and the military strength. Based on the military threat from China and our war requirements according to the strategy guideline, the weaponry and number of the army have to decide. However, the success of those military strength activities depends on the decision about how much budget should be distributed. System dynamics models are increasing common in the analysis of policy and strategy issues. The complicated and practical military strength activity system is constructed by System Dynamic to conduct the dynamic simulation in this study. This article reveals three points: (1) personnel of maintenance cost and operations of maintenance cost discriminate against each other under the constrained budget. (2) better weaponry or training could reduce number of the army, and upgrade weapons to maintenance military ability. (3) maintenance cost and investment funds discriminate against each other under the constrained budget. From the viewpoints of short-term, increasing investment funds to get new weapons would affect equipment servicing. From the viewpoints of long-term, making maintenance cost cannot increase the number of the army operating new weapons. This paper illustrates the above-mentioned points with examples from military operations. Using the proposed model, we can analysis the output by changing those key factors to evaluate the quality of a policy. It shows how successful the model is used to simulate dynamically, to be a simulation-based decision support system and to upgrade the strategic level from static thinking to dynamic thinking.
