兩岸關係歷經了半世紀來數個不同的階段，在這當中兩岸不論是釋放善意，或者軍事威嚇，所有的互動模式皆為「一方先行、另一方後動」。亦即過去歷年的兩岸關係互動，為台灣與中共之間相互因應對方的行為而採取應對措施的模式。而當中最直接左右兩岸關係，牽動雙方緊張或和緩的因素，莫過於台灣四年一次的總統大選。無論選舉前的政見取向，以及選後的執政團隊，都將影響台灣在大陸政策上的可能轉變。換言之，自解嚴開放至今，台灣的民主化與本土化，造就了台灣政黨政治與民主制度的許多里程碑。而過去執政的國民黨與曾經在野的民進黨也都無不致力於在選舉版圖上的擴張，總統選舉對兩岸關係的影響，也歷歷可辨。 綜合上述，本文希望集中處理：台灣的歷屆總統選舉將如何影響台灣的大陸政策。筆者認為，實行民主制度的台灣，在歷屆大選前所展現出來的政見宣揚之背景與選舉考量，以及選後各政黨之間在兩岸政策上的政治角力，兩者將對於既有兩岸政策除了提出質疑與批判的聲音，更會在選舉後產生在意識形態上的改變。 The cross-Strait relations in recent years have been stuck in a vicious circle: one party plays the role of challenger while the other party the punisher. The result, as everyone can imagine, is full of twists and turns. This thesis tries to trace the origins of such antagonism and argue that it is Taiwan's presidential relation that pushes the government to take a confrontational position. With this hypothesis, the author thus to examine the three presidential elections, finding that the general elections sometimes offer pressures for reconciliation, as in 2000 and 2008, instead of encouragement for confrontation, as in 2004. But no matter what, the presidential elections force the parties/candidates to offer creative visions and alternative policies regard how to handle cross-Strait relations. The presidential elections in this sense play a critical role in shaping Taiwan's China policy and thus influence the mode of cross-Strait interactions.
