未來人口老化、經濟發展及勞工退休基金的投資績效等問題皆可能危及多數國家勞工退休基金的財務。政府為了維持勞工退休基金的財務平衡，未來將調整退休金政策，因此，當政府調升退休金提撥率或調漲退休金年金保費時，將使雇主在勞動僱用上的成本增加，廠商將面臨政府退休金政策的不確定。近來在退休金政策上的文獻多是探討雇主退休金提撥率的增加，將使廠商減少勞動的需求。我們探討退休金政策的不確定，它可能會影響廠商勞動需求的決策。在勞動需求上雇主可以選擇現在僱用勞動或延遲僱用勞動。這意謂著廠商在勞動需求上擁有一個買權。若是因未來經濟景氣不好，廠商將延遲僱用勞動。當廠商決定僱用勞動時，其執行選擇權的價格為僱用勞動的成本。勞動的價值為未來的利潤折現值及選擇權價值之總和。我們以實質選擇權的方法探討退休金政策的不確定性，對廠商勞動需求決策的影響。 我們得到邊際勞動僱用及邊際解僱兩個門檻，邊際勞動僱用門檻的右邊為僱用一個員工所獲得的產出利潤淨現值，左邊為僱用員工的邊際成本。邊際勞動僱用的利潤為僱用這個員工未來所能獲得之利潤的折現值加上解僱這個員工的選擇權價值。在廠商勞動需求決策上需要將選擇權價值加入廠商的利潤裡。選擇權價值為雇主決策是否要僱用或解僱勞動時所等待的時間價值減去實質薪資。當實質薪資變得很高時，解僱勞動的選擇權價值會趨近於無窮大，這意指雇主將會延遲解僱勞動，雇主才能得到較大的解僱勞動選擇權價值。未來退休金政策可能改變或不變。若未來退休金政策改變和退休金保費的增加幅度小於未來淨利潤折現值的增加幅度，廠商選擇增加僱用勞動。 Facing the coming of an ageing population, economic development and investment performance in pension fund are likely to jeopardize the financial sustainability of pension fund in many countries. To maintain the financial balance of the pension fund, the government aims to regulate the pension policy in the future, thus, when the government increases pension contribution rate or raises pension annuity premium, it would increase firms’ labor costs, thus the firms may face uncertainty of pension policy. Recent studies suggest that the increase in employers’ pension contribution rate would decrease the labor demand of the firms. This study discusses how the pension policy uncertainty would affect the firms’ decision on labor demand. Employers could choose to hire employees now or in the future based on the labor demand. This means that firms have the buying right on labor demand. If the economy is expected to be recession in the future, the firms would delay the hiring. When the firms decide to hire employees, the exercising price is the hiring cost. The value of hiring a labor is the sum of the present value of profits in future periods and the option value. This study discusses the effect of pension policy uncertainty on firms’ labor demand decision by the real options approach. This study obtains two thresholds of the marginal hiring and marginal firing of worker, the right-hand side of the thresholds of marginal hiring of worker is the marginal benefits from hiring a worker and the left-hand side of the thresholds of marginal hiring of worker is the corresponding marginal costs. The marginal benefit of hiring a worker is equal to the sum of the present value of future profits and the value of the option to fire a labor. An option value is incorporated into the companies’ profits on labor demand decision. The value of the option is the waiting time value of the employer decides whether hiring or firing a labor minus real wage. As the real wage becomes very high, the option value of firing approaches infinitely large. This means that the employer should delay the firing, the employer faces a large value of the option of firing the labor. Pension policy may be change or not in the future. If the pension policy change really in the future and the raise level of the pension annuity premium is smaller than the increase level of the present value of profits in the future, then the firms choose to hire more labor.
