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| 題名: | 台灣殯葬產業動態研究 |
| 其他題名: | Dynamics Study of Funeral Industry in Taiwan |
| 作者: | 阮俊中
Juan, Chung-chang |
| 貢獻者: | 管理研究所
王昌斌
Cuang-Bin Wang |
| 關鍵詞: | 死亡人口;殯葬平均價格;殯葬業收入;殯葬用地 |
| 日期: | 2003 |
| 上傳時間: | 2015-06-04 11:17:48 (UTC+8) |
| 摘要: | 本研究利用美國MIT教授福雷斯特（Forrester）所創造的「系統動態學模型」模擬台灣殯葬產業之長期發展（2000~2050年），所模擬的參數包括：總人口量、出生及往生人口量、人口年齡結構、往生者年齡結構，以及台灣殯葬業的收入、產值、平均價格等多項指標。 研究發現台灣行政院主計處歷次「工商普查」所公布的殯葬業收入及產值與模型模擬結果相差很大，例如1996年工商普查公布的台灣殯葬業總收入為24.18億元，而實際可能的數字卻是111.91億元；又如2001年工商普查公布的殯葬業收入為56億元，而模擬結果是440.11億元（推計方案二）。 未來五十年將是台灣人口轉型的重要歷史時期，自2027年起台灣人口將處於死亡人口大於出生人口的負成長階段，2050年的死亡率將是2000年的2.9倍（16.23‰ / 5.68‰），同時，該年台灣死亡人口將是2000年死亡人口12.6萬的2.9倍即36萬人。2000年65歲以上的往生人口占往生人口總數的63%，2050年該比例上升至74.5%。往生人口總量及往生年齡的增加將帶給台灣殯葬服務業改造與提昇的機會，未來的殯葬業應視為新興的傳統產業。 由於往生消費觀念變化及總體經濟衰退等因素影響，家庭收支中往生消費的比重逐漸下降，因此，殯葬價格也呈現長期下降之大趨勢。2000年台灣殯葬平均價格估計為34萬元，2050年將下降至33萬以下。 本研究根據三種不同的價格，模擬了三種不同的殯葬業收入，根據第二種價格之中推計方案，2000年的殯葬業總收入為440億元，2050年將成長至1,101億元。2000年尚未使用之殯葬用地面積為3386公頃，模型推估2050年時，未使用土地尚餘1992公頃，既可轉為其他產業使用，也可留作殯儀館、火葬場擴充用地。 此外，本研究尚發現，台灣濫葬比例至今仍高達10%左右，故2000年殯葬業收入約損失44億元，2050年可能高達110億元。
This study intends to simulate the long-tem development of Taiwan’s funeral industry on the basis of Systematic Dynamics Model created by Prof. Forrester of MIT. Variables adopted in this study include General Population, Birth Number, Death Number, Population Age Structure, Age Structure of the Dead and many other indicators, such as the Income, the Output Value and Average Price of Taiwan’s funeral industry. This study finds a rather large gap in each of the past years between the General Investigation of Commerce and Industry conducted by the Accounting & Statistical Office of the Executive Yuan and the simulation output generated by the Systematic Dynamics Model in terms of the income and output value of Taiwan’s funeral industry. For example, the general productivity of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 1996 was NT$2.418 billions according to the General Investigation of Commerce and Industry, but the actual number might be up to NT$11.191 billions referring to the simulation of Systematic Dynamics Model. Also, the general income of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 2001 according to the above mentioned investigation was 5.6 billions and that generated by the simulation model was 44.011 billions (see Estimation 2). Taiwan’s population structure will be facing a huge change in the coming five decades. More specifically, the death number will become greater than birth number in Taiwan since 2027 according analysis. In this logic, the negative growth of population will lead to the death rate of 2050 to be 2.9 times higher than that of 2000 (16.23% in 2050 and 5.68% in 2000). In the meantime, the death number of 2050 will also claim up to 360 thousands, which is, by chance, also 2.9 times greater than the 126 thousands of 2000. Turning to another aspect, 63% of the dead population was over 65 years old in 2000 and that of 2050 will hit 74.5%. Due to the increasing number and the rise of the average age of the dead, it seems that the chance to reform and to improve Taiwan’s funeral industry has arrived. On this ground, this study would suggest to view funeral industry as a rising traditional industry. Influenced by the changing funeral concepts and the declining economic capacity, expenses spending on the dead are therefore decreasing accordingly. This phenomenon indicates that the price of funeral service will gradually decrease in the future. For example, the average price per service in 2000 was NT$340 thousands and that will fall down to 330 thousands in 2050 by estimation. This study simulates three different income structures of Taiwan’s funeral industry by citing three different pricing structures. In short, the annual general income of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 2000 was NT$44 billions and that will reach NT$110.1 billions in 2050.The undeveloped funeral land on Taiwan in 2000 was 3,386 hectares and that of 2050 will drop to 1992 hectares, which by then can be transferred to other industries or reserve for funeral parlor and/or cremation site. Furthermore, this study finds that the unlawful bury in Taiwan remains high up to 10% until now, which, in general, represents NT$4.4 billions lose of funeral income in 2000 and this lose will go up to NT$11 billions in 2050 in this sense. |
| 顯示於類別: | [企業管理學系(管理科學碩/博士班,非營利事業管理碩士班)] 博碩士論文-管理科學碩博士班
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