應用灰色理論於裝備妥善率預測之研究

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Title:	應用灰色理論於裝備妥善率預測之研究
Other Titles:	A STUDY OF USING THE GREY THEORY TO PREDICT EQUIPMENT AVAILABILITY
Authors:	楊坤益 Yang, Kun-i
Contributors:	管理科學研究所應立志 Li-chih Ying
Keywords:	預測;灰色理論;妥善率;整體後勤支援 Grey Theory;Prediction;Availability;Integrated Logistics Support
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2015-08-04 15:44:46 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	台海作戰首重空中優勢，面對2005年以後我空中優勢逐漸轉為劣勢的情況，如何有效確保空防戰力，維持武器裝備妥善，實為當前重要之軍事課題。本研究參考後勤管理相關文獻，針對國軍裝備特性建構裝備妥善率預測模式，藉由蒐集、分析過去數據，運用灰色理論建構「妥善率預測模型」進行裝備妥善率預測之實證研究，期以有效預測裝備未來妥善趨勢，做為國軍部隊戰力指數參考；另藉由「灰關聯分析模型」以關聯度分析找出影響妥善率之關鍵因素，研擬相關具體因應作為。　　　研究結果發現灰色理論「妥善率預測模型」在短期妥善率之預測結果是令人滿意的，可經由建立一動態預測模型選定最佳預測模式，以獲得最可靠之妥善率預測值；另經由「灰關聯分析模型」結果發現不論裝備機隊大小，影響其妥善率維持最主要因素均為停用待件率，但影響妥善率之次要因素，則因裝備數量(機隊大小)產生差異。此研究結果可提供國軍各級後勤管理幹部，提前擬訂相關整備及因應作為。　　The most important thing of Taiwan straits conflict depends upon the controls of the air space, the superiority of our air combat capabilities over Taiwan straits have gradually become inferior strength after 2005, but how to effectively guarantee the capacities of air defense and maintain full serviceability of the equipments will be the primary objective. This study is based on relevant documents of logistics management, and in accordance with characteristics of equipments to form up a predictable availability pattern; and through collecting and analyzing of period of time of past data to be predictable observing values, and then using ＂Grey Theory Availability Prediction Model＂ to predict the equipment's future availability, and prove it to be reference data of warfare capability , and finally utilize ＂Grey Relation Analysis Model＂ to conduct a relevant analysis and find out the crucial factors of elements that affect availability, and then form up a specific action to deal with armed forces for consulting and applying. The results show that the ＂Grey Prediction Model＂ is satisfactory for short-term availability predicting, a ＂Dynamic Prediction Model＂ can be built to obtain further reference data, then select out a most optimal predicting pattern through all of the experiments and then conduct the evaluation again to obtain a reliable result. In the ＂Grey Relation Analysis Model＂, it is found that no matter how big or small your fleet are, the main factor for affecting availability is the rate for waiting parts, but the second factor for affecting availability depends on equipment quantity. This result can provide all levels of logistics personnel with precise guidance on promoting and maintaining all kinds of equipment availability, and set up different kinds of measures and actions.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Business Administration, Master/Ph.D Program in Management Sciences] Disserations and Theses(Master and Doctoral Program in Management Sciences)

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