| 摘要: | 日本自1990年初因資產價格泡沬破滅開始，導致出現嚴重的經濟衰退，依據學者的研究指出，日本自1990年至2011年之年平均經濟成長率僅1.1%，其中2008年至2010年三年平均成長率更為負1.17%，顯示其經濟欲振乏力。消費者物價持續下跌、日圓升值、貿易出超轉貿易入超、政局不穩、經濟持續無感，此稱為日本「經濟迷失的二十年」。2012年12月16日日本自民黨重新執政，由自民黨總裁安倍晉三組閣。安倍政權上路後即不斷對經濟政策下猛藥，尤其於2013年1月11日祭出總額達20.3兆日圓的「緊急經濟對策」，利用大膽的金融寬鬆政策、機動性的財政政策以及鼓勵民間投資的成長策略三管齊下（被稱之為安倍經濟學的「三把箭」），希望找回強有力的日本經濟，促使實質國內生產毛額成長率達2%，並創造60萬個就業機會。本研究利用事件研究法探討2012年7月1日至2014年6月30日安倍經濟學宣告對台灣股市之影響，另外，本文進一步探討安倍經濟學對台灣上市櫃產業─電機機械、電子、汽車、塑膠及化學業等5個產業的股價影響，本研究選取安倍經濟學宣告3個事件日進行研究，分別探討這些事件日對各類股異常報酬是否有顯著不同。實證結果顯示，第一事件日日本宣布利用財政及貨幣等各種手段來提振經濟、第二事件日日本央行根據安倍經濟學宣布推出新的金融政策及第三事件日由日本首相安倍晉三發布最新經濟措施，目的在提高日本長期經濟成長，均對台股呈現顯著之正向影響；對台灣上市櫃產業的影響以電機機械類股影響最大，其次為電子及汽車類股，接著為塑膠及化工類股。
Since the beginning of 1990, the severe recession began due to the burst of asset price bubbles in Japan. According to the scholars’ research, the annual average growth between 1990 and 2011 was only 1.1%; the annual average growth between 2008 and 2010 was negative 1.17%, showing the weak performance of economy. The continuous falling of consumer price, the appreciation of Japanese yen, the transfer from trade surplus to trade deficit, political instability, and continuous weakness of economy were the causes of “economy lost two decades” in Japan. On December 16, 2012, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan returned to power, and the cabinet was formed by LDP president Abe Shinzo. After taking over the regime, Abe continuously implemented drastic economic policies, especially the “emergency economic measure” resorted on January 11, 2013 with the total amount reaching 20.3 trillion yen. Abe adopted three strategies for growth: implementation of bold monetary easing policy and mobile financial policy and the encouragement of private investment (called “Three Arrows” from Abenomics), hoping to regain strong economy in Japan, enable the growth of real GDP to reach 2%, and create 600,000 job opportunities. The study adopted the event study method to explore the influence of declaration of Abenomics between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2014 on stocks in Taiwan. Moreover, the study further explored the influence of Abenomics on the stocks of 5 listed and OTC industries in Taiwan, including electrical engineering and machinery, electronics, automotive, plastics and chemical industry. Selecting 3 dates of positive events upon the declaration of Abenomics for analysis, the study explored respectively whether these dates of events were significantly different in abnormal returns of various types of stocks. The empirical result showed that the date of the first event was about the declaration of using financial and monetary approaches to boost the economy in Japan; the date of the second event was about the declaration of a new financial policy promulgated by Central Bank of Japan based on Abenomics; and the date of the third event was about the latest economic measures promulgated by Abe Shinzo, the prime minister of Japan, aiming to increase the long-term economic growth in Japan. Three dates of events had a significant positive influence on stocks in Taiwan; for the influence on listed and OTC industries in Taiwan, the stocks of electrical engineering and machinery industry were influenced the most, followed by the stocks of electronics, automotive, plastics and chemical industry. |
