國際旅遊和經濟成長之關係－以新加坡為例

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Title:	國際旅遊和經濟成長之關係－以新加坡為例
Other Titles:	The Relationship between International Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Singapore
Authors:	蒲明德 Pu, Ming-Der
Contributors:	文化創意事業管理學系休閒產業碩士班陳寶媛 Pao-Yuan Chen
Keywords:	誤差修正模型;共整合檢定;單根檢定;匯率;經濟成長 error correction model;co-integration test;unit root test;exchange rate;economic growth
Date:	2015
Issue Date:	2016-10-12 14:49:28 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	旅遊業在十九世紀八十年代起發展快速，已超過汽車工業和石化工業，有「無煙囪工業」之稱。觀光和經濟成長之間的關聯性一直有爭論，是觀光促進經濟成長；亦或觀光受到經濟成長影響。本研究以新加坡為研究對象，採用1980~2014的年資料，所探討的內容分為兩部份。第一：以Meurer(2010)的旅遊需求函數為架構，探討新加坡的旅遊收入和赴新加坡旅遊的人數是否受到世界 GDP和實質匯率影響；第二：以Brida, Lanzilotta, Lionetti and Risso(2010)之實證模型為架構，探討旅遊觀光業是否會提升新加坡的經濟成長。　　本研究使用的變數有：實質匯率、旅遊人數、旅遊收入、世界GDP、新加坡GDP。旅遊收入和旅遊人數的數據採用新加坡資料局所統計的資料，世界GDP、新加坡GDP、物價指數與匯率等數據均取自國際貨幣基金的World Economic Outlook Database。本研究採用ADF單根檢定發現所有的變數並不穩定，經過共整合檢定後，檢驗出變數之間具有長期均衡關係，因此乃進一步採用誤差修正模型進行估計。　　經過實證研究得到三個結論。第一：世界GDP、實質匯率對赴新旅遊人數沒有顯著影響。第二：世界GDP、實質匯率對新加坡的旅遊收入沒有顯著影響。第三：新加坡的旅遊收入對新加坡的經濟成長有顯著的正向影響，然而，實質匯率對新加坡的經濟成長卻呈現顯著的負向影響。　　The tourism industry has been growing rapidly since the late 〖19〗^th century. It has become a highly competitive market which has surpassed the automobile industry and petrochemical industry. Tourism is also called the ＂non-smokestack industry＂. The connection made between tourism and economic growth has been controversial as many do not regard the comparison as properly made. But whether tourism can play or does play an important role depends on its link to economic growth; economic growth often has a range of factors involved and tourism can be one of those factors and sometimes a very important contributing factor. The main focus of this study is Singapore and statistical data from 1980 through 2014 has been used for analysis. The study has two main parts: the first analyses and comments on whether international tourism visitors and international tourism revenue have influenced World GDP (Gross Domestic Product); the second considers whether tourism development promotes economic growth. The study has two main parts: the first analyses and comments on whether international tourism visitors and international tourism revenue have influenced World GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is based on Meurer (2010) tourism demand function as framework; the second considers whether tourism development promotes economic growth is derived from Brida, Lanzilotta, Lionetti and Risso (2010) empirical model of architecture.　　The variables in this study were exchange rates, the number of international tourists, the international tourism revenue, World GDP and Singapore’s GDP. The data on international tourism revenue and the number of tourists was obtained from Statistics Singapore, the data on the World GDP, Singapore’s GDP, consumer price index and exchange rate was obtained from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. The ADF unit root test, co-integration test and error correction model were all used in this study. Use of the ADF unit root test revealed that the variables were unstable. The results from the co-integration test indicated that the relationship between the variables showed that the long-term equilibrium relationship existed.　　The results of this study merited three conclusions: 1. that World GDP and real exchange rates did not have an effect on the numbers who traveled to Singapore. 2. that World GDP and real exchange rates did not have an effect on the international tourism revenue resulting from tourists traveling to Singapore and 3. that international tourism revenue does have a positive impact on Singapore’s economic growth.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Cultural & Creative Enterprise Management] Disserations and Theses(M. A. Program in Leisure Industry)

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