隨著外在環境的不斷變化，風險管理的議題逐漸受到供應鏈研究學者的重視。近年來，供應鏈風險管理已經成為現今企業經營的重要課題，而風險本身具有非線性與不確定性的特點，無形中亦增加了管理者預測與管理供應鏈風險的困難。由於電子零售店與傳統零售店存在著交易行為與物流分開的特性，造成電子商務必須依賴強大的物流支援系統才得以順利運作其商業行為。隨著大陸淘寶商城的配送需求快速成長，因此風險管理將會是淘寶商城建構物流服務時的重要管理課題。另一方面，在供應鏈風險管理研究領域中，「反脆弱」是一個新興觀念，對於供應鏈相關領域而言，若能將反脆弱的觀念引進物流系統將有助於我們更瞭解物流系統的完整樣貌。本計畫將藉由模糊認知圖與敏感度模式等分析技術，以反脆弱的觀點逐年分階段建構研究個案物流機制的風險分析架構。藉由本計畫之研究調查工作，除了可建立評估研究個案之協同運輸管理的風險管理課題外，研究結果可進一步提供物流業者建構其供應鏈規劃模型與策略之參考。 The internet represents a growing and huge market and the development of e-commerce is an efficient business model which enables new relationship between consumers and suppliers. In order to send goods or products to customer fast and safely, strong support from efficient logistics system is necessary. The logistics process is complicated and has a lot of risks. For the past few years, the supply chain management has been widely studied in the academic as well as practical fields. However, there are fewer studies about the risk of collaborative transportation management for the Tmall. Risk management is regarded as the important issue in supply chain management, and the antifragile is the new concept of risk analysis. If managers understand the most antifragile parts in all business, they could take actions and know how to allocate resources to avoid risks happening. The objective of this study is to develop an evaluation model and discuss the risk of logistic delivery system via the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) and Sensitivity Model (SM). From the survey, we can establish an evaluation model to analyze and describe the antifragile, vulnerability and resilience of the delivery system using different kind of research methods. The results obtained in this study can be used to help the manager formulate strategies and reduce the risks proactively as well.
