本研究之目的在於從國中生在校學習績效與會考表現之相關，探討超額比序採計在校成績之可行性。本研究以嘉義市某國中104學年度畢業生為研究對象，蒐集七年級至九年級的在校平均成績與國中教育會考之等級，利用區別分析與羅吉斯迴歸分析建立是否錄取第一志願之模型，以提供學生、家長及學校參考。本研究經資料分析，結果如下：一、 學生在校成績與會考之表現有顯著相關。二、 以在校成績進行羅吉斯迴歸分析建立是否錄取第一志願之預測模型，正確率達93%左右。 The study aimed to find out the correlation between students' learning effectiveness at school and their performances on Comprehensive Assessment Program for Junior High School Students (CAP). The study findings further contributed to the feasibility of using the grade point average (GPA) as an examinations-free entrance competition indicator for enrollment excess. The subjects of the study were the graduates in a junior high school in Chiayi City. By collecting their GPA over the three years of junior high school and the grades of CAP, the author applied discriminant analysis and logistic regression to build a model for predicting students' first choices of high schools. The study findings may serve as a guide for students, parents, and schools. The results of the data collection and the analysis were as follows:a. The grades of CAP are highly relevant to GPA. b. The accuracy of applying GPA to the predictive model using logistics regression reached ninety-three percent.
