民進黨於2016 年5 月20 日執政後，由於大陸不認為台灣在「九二共識」有正面回應，因此片面中斷兩岸官方與半官方的交流。兩岸政府在缺乏有效官方溝通管道下，無形中也增加因雙方認知誤差而導致發生軍事衝突危機的機率。當然台海會否爆發戰爭，美國的態度也很重要。究竟大陸官方會否如退將及學者所言，以武力解決台灣問題？一旦大陸決定採取武力方式解決台灣問題，屆時美國的態度如何？台海若發生戰爭，不論勝負如何，恐將對台灣造成生命財產的重大損失，因此有必要針對大陸會否對台動武進行評估研究，以利台灣本身在可能範圍內預作因應。本文目的在藉由檢視大陸對越南動武案例，據以建立對台動武的可能徵候，並兼及探討美國棄台論的最新發展，進而預判台海戰爭發生的可能形態。 After Democratic Progress Party (DPP) became ruling party on May 20, 2016, cross-Strait official and semi-official exchange have been stopped by mainland China side unilaterally due to no positive response of “92 consensus” from Taiwan. Without official channel of communication, it is easy for two sides to face the risk of military conflicts because of misperception. Whether there will be a war between mainland China and Taiwan is also much concerned with US position on that matter. Whether mainland China will use force to take Taiwan as retired generals and scholars predicted? What will US response if that scenario happens? No matter wins or loses; Taiwan will face large casualties if a war breaks out across Taiwan Strait. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of China’s use of force to take Taiwan in order for Taiwan to avoid the risk in possible way. This paper will try to create some indicators to measure under what conditions China would use force based on the previous cases. It will also focus on the newly development of US statement of abandoning Taiwan in order to draw the whole picture of the risk of war breaking out across Taiwan Strait.
