本研究採用向量誤差修正模型分析法(Vector Error Correction Model, VECM)探討世界貨櫃運價指數、原油價格及台灣航運股股價之間的長期均衡關係為何? 世界貨櫃運價指數、原油價格及台灣航運股股價相互間如何影響?選取資料期間為2011年6月20日到2022年8月5日的日資料，變數選取為世界貨櫃運價指數、北海布蘭特原油油價、長榮股價、陽明股價、萬海股價。實證發現世界貨櫃運價指數、長榮股價、陽明股價、萬海股價存在共整合關係，世界貨櫃運價指數變化量受自身及長榮股價變化量影響較慢、長榮股價變化量僅不受原油油價影響、陽明股價變化量不受油價及油價變化量影響、萬海股價變化量較不受長榮股價變化量影響。 This research uses vector error correction model analysis method (Vector Error Correction Model,VECM) to explore the long-term equilibrium relationship between the world container freight index, crude oil price and Taiwan shipping stock price? How the relatioships exist among world container freight index, crude oil price and Taiwan shipping stock prices ? The selected data period is the daily data from June 20, 2011 to August 5, 2022. The selected variables are World Container Freight Index, Beihai Brent crude oil price, Evergreen stock price, Yang Ming stock price, and Wan Hai stock price. Empirical evidence shows that there is a co-integration relationship among the world container freight index, Evergreen stock price, Yangming stock price, and Wanhai stock price. The change of the world container freight index is relatively slow to be affected by the change of itself and the stock price of Evergreen, and the change of Evergreen stock price is not only affected by the crude oil price. Yang Ming's stock price changes are not affected by oil prices and oil price changes, and Wan Hai's stock price changes are less affected.
