依據國際關係中傳統的現實主義（Realism），當一國成為強權，就會像強權一般地 行事，即使強權之間並無不良的意圖，但國際體系中的「無政府狀態」（anarchy），卻使 得強權僅僅因為彼此所具有的能力，而相互懼怕、走向衝突。當今現實主義大師米爾夏 麥爾（John J. Mearsheimer）即主張，中國是一上升中的新興強權，而美國則是目前唯 一碩果僅存的超強，倘若中國目前權力成長的趨勢維持一段時日，漸可與美國等量齊 觀，美中兩國將無法擺脫這強權政治的悲劇性宿命。然而，本研究計畫嘗試從米氏的理 論中，挑戰米氏的此一論點：米氏的理論，其實存有內在的不一致；而他注重相對權力 關係的解釋，雖是基於現實主義重視物質能力（material capability）的傳統，但在物質 能力的思路上，卻還有他自己所提出的地理與科技等兩項因素的互動，在形塑美中關 係。本研究計畫嘗試從地理與科技間互動此一線索，架構出一更具解釋力的改良式理 論，並以美中關係以及美國與過去德、日、俄等崛起強權的關係，進行實證的案例比較 研究。從中，本計畫預期可精進美中關係與強權政治的理論化研究，獲得一解釋力較佳 的理論，促進理論發展的持續累積，並作為相關決策的參考。 Realism maintains a pessimistic outlook over the great power politics. Under the international anarchy, only because the material capabilities that the great powers possess will make them compete for security. John J. Mearsheimer, the leading realist, builds his theory over great power politics and suggests that, as long as China keeps rising; it will become a peer competitor to the United States. However, this project tries to challenge this pessimistic view. This project argues that, Mearsheimer’s theory has internal inconsistencies and overlooks the interaction between technology and geography introduced by the theory itself. This project intends to build a revised theory based on the interaction between technology and geography and test it with the case of Sino-US relations as well as the pervious great power rivalries between the US and Germany, Japan, and Soviet. The project aims to reach a better theory; stimulate further theoretical development on the great power politics; and provides a guideline to the decision makers.
