中國崛起對美國亞洲盟邦以及美國與其亞洲盟邦之軍事同盟的影響邏輯為何？本文認為北京主要是利用其經濟上的優勢，依循著「先經濟後安全」的發展軌跡逐步地促成華盛頓的亞洲同盟伙伴對其先產生經濟依賴的轉移，再產生安全依賴的轉移，進而形成所謂之「雙重依賴轉移」，如此以削弱、裂解美國與其亞洲盟邦之軍事同盟對其崛起所形成的箝制。然而此影響邏輯未必對每一個美國亞洲盟邦造成相同的影響與結果，在美國的三個東北亞同盟國家當中，基本上日本與南韓是呈現「經濟依賴中國，安全依賴美國」的「分裂式依賴」；而台灣極可能會是「經濟依賴中國，安全也依賴中國」的「匯聚式依賴」。為了因應此影響邏輯的作用，華盛頓此刻也正在調整它對此三個同盟伙伴的態度。 What is the logic of the influence of China’s rise in America’s Asian allies and their mutual defense frameworks with Washington? In this research paper I propose an idea of “dual transition of dependence” arguing that Beijing is taking advantage of its economic upper hand to place leverage on Washington’s allies in Asia to lead to their dependence on China, from economy to security. In doing so, Beijing will be able to weaken or break down the check and balance against its growth, which is generated by Washington and its Asian allies. The logic of the “dual transition of dependence” model, however, does not work similarly on each America’s Asian allies. The cases of Japan and Korea appear to be a pattern of “divergent dependence” implying both of two states depend on China economically but rely on the U.S. militarily. In contrast, the example of “Taiwan” is very likely to be an opposite one of “convergent dependence” meaning the country depends on China economically and will rely on China militarily. In response to this transformation impacted by the “dual transition of dependence” model, Washington is readjusting its attitudes to these three America’s allies in the region.
