冷戰後美韓聯盟的演進：威脅平衡理論的檢視

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Title:	冷戰後美韓聯盟的演進：威脅平衡理論的檢視
Other Titles:	The Evolution of U.S.-R.O.K. Alliance in the Post Cold War: A Reappraisal of Threat Balance Theory
Authors:	游明蒼 Yu, Ming-tsang
Contributors:	國際暨大陸事務學系亞太研究碩士班孫國祥 Kuo-hsiang Sun
Keywords:	北韓核子危機;威脅平衡;聯盟理論;美韓聯盟 North Korea Nuclear Crisis;Balance of Threat;Theory of Alliance;U.S.-R.O.K. Alliance
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2015-05-10 12:05:47 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究的目的是探討美國與南韓於韓戰後在集團對抗之下所建立之聯盟關係、其在冷戰結束後之演進情形及未來可能的發展方向。藉由瓦特（Stephen M. Walt）所發展之聯盟理論，本研究透過威脅平衡、國外直接援助、政治滲透、以及意識型態的聯盟外部與內部關係來暸解美韓兩國在這段時間內造成聯盟關係親疏的主要因素。　　　　經過分析後可得知，北韓與中國的威脅是促使美韓聯盟在冷戰後持續維繫的主要因素。縱使國外直接援助、政治滲透、及意識型態等內部關係不若冷戰時期來的緊密，但其威脅平衡關係仍有利於美韓聯盟的鞏固。其次，無論是在威脅平衡關係的發展、或內部關係的演變，瓦特的聯盟理論皆能充分的解釋冷戰後美韓聯盟的發展趨勢。　　　　因此，本文發現在美韓聯盟未來的發展過程中，威脅平衡關係仍將發揮主導的作用，而其中的關鍵在於美韓兩國對於北韓及中國威脅的認知差距。最後，對於台灣戰略發展的啟示，便是利用有利於已的威脅平衡關係、並發展良好的內部關係，以形成保障台灣生存與安全的同盟戰略。　　The research aims to reappraise the evolution and possible future development of the U.S.-R.O.K. alliance which formed under the superpower competition after the Cold War. By using the alliance theory including the concepts of balance of threat, foreign support, political penetration, and ideological facts which developed by Stephen M. Walt, the research tries to understand the events which make the alliance cohesively or not. 　　　　After the analysis, the research argues that the threat from China and North Korea was the main fact to hold the alliance together. Although the foreign support, political penetration, and ideological relationship were more alienation then before, the relation of balance of threat was advantage to the consolidation of the alliance. Secondly, whether it is the development of the relation of balance of threat or the evolution of the internal relationship, Walt’s alliance theory could adequately explain the trends of the alliance development.　　　　Therefore, in this research, it is discovered that in the future development of the U.S.-R.O.K. alliance, the relation of balance of threat would keep playing the leading role, and the perception gap of the threat from North Korea and China between the U.S. and the R.O.K. is the key factor to this trends. To conclude, the suggestion to the strategy of Taiwan is to take advantage of useful relation of balance of threat, developing a virtuous internal relationship, and to form an alliance strategy that could preserve the security and existence of Taiwan.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International and China Studies, The M.A. Program of Asia-Pacific Studies and Public Policy Studies] Disserations and Theses(M.A. Program in Asia-Pacific Studies)

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