| 摘要: | 研究者利用1967∼2000年，民雄、太保、朴子、水上、中埔等五個鄉鎮嘉義家庭扶助中心之兒童少年扶助個案資料，其中該筆資料完整貧窮時段的個案有1324名及截斷個案有175名，共計1499名扶助個案，本文採用描述性統計及存活分析生命表的模式分析致貧因素、貧窮持續時間及脫離貧窮因素。本文並依年代別受扶助家庭的人口特性、受扶助時間及其他人口特徵，個別檢視家庭扶助個案的貧窮動態歷程。 研究結果顯示這些受扶助家庭的致貧因素有：「就業限制」、「家庭成員傷病」、「家庭資源不足」、「家庭成員變動」、「入獄或通緝中」、「傷病死亡」及「意外死亡」。其中最主要的兩項致貧因素為「家中主要經濟負擔者死亡」（細分為「傷病死亡」及「意外死亡」兩項主要事件）及「家庭成員傷病」。 就貧窮持續時間的分佈而言，研究者發現到貧窮持續時間在兩年以內的個案占總貧窮個案的18％，而貧窮持續時間在四年以內者有41.4％，且貧窮持續時間在六年以內的有將近66％。貧窮持續時間最短為一個月，最久的長達16年。 影響受扶助家庭可能脫貧的因素主要有：「子女長大就業」、「戶長再婚或同居」和「薪資所得上漲」三項。其它的脫離貧窮因素如「支出減少」、「依賴人口減少」或「短期收入增加」所佔的比例都很低。 本研究的限制在於受扶助個案資料有些項目社工員未確實填寫，及部分資料已缺損，且因為本研究的貧窮持續時間的計算方式是以停止扶助時間減去開始扶助時間可能會導致貧窮時段的低估，再加上扶助標準具有彈性，無法確保所有的扶助個案都有一致性的標準認定，此乃本研究的限制所在。對未來研究的建議則是因為本研究只針對五個鄉鎮的受扶助資料，而未將全嘉義縣的扶助資料納入，且並未深入研究再次落入貧窮的個案，期待未來的研究可以針對這兩部分深做入探索。
The researchers used the data of the benefit receivers of children and teenagers that were extracted from the year 1967 to 2000 of the five towns of Mingsyong, Taibao, Puzih, Shueishang, and Jongpu served by Chiayi Branch Office to get the descriptive statistics and the model of the survival analysis of Life-Table Method for analyzing the poverty, the duration of poverty spell, and the possibility of getting rid of poverty of the beneficiaries. Totally 1499 benefit receivers were included in the extracted data, of which 1324 benefit receivers were complete poverty spell and 175 benefit receivers were censor cases. The paper stood on the characteristics of benefit receivers, the duration of benefit received, and the features of the other people in the benefit receiving families to analyze the duration of poverty dynamics of benefit receivers. The research revealed that the causes of poverty of these benefit receiving families are ＂ limited occupation＂, ＂ having injured or sick family members＂, ＂ lack of family resources＂, ＂the change of family members＂, ＂imprisoned or to be promulgated the order for being arrested family members＂, ＂the illness and death of main economic provider＂, and ＂the accidental death of main economic provider＂. In addition, the two chief causes of poverty were ＂the death of main economic provider of a family＂, which is divided into ＂illness and death＂ and ＂accidental death＂, and ＂having injured or sick family members＂. Among all the poverty clients, the proportion is 18% of the duration of poverty spell less than two years, 41.4% less than four years, and nearly 66% less than six years. The shortest and longest duration of poverty spell were one month and sixteen years. The three main factors which influence the possibility to get rid of poverty in benefit receivers are ＂the employments of grown children＂, ＂the remarriage or cohabitation of the head of a family＂, and ＂the increased salary＂. Other factors that also have influences on the possibility to get rid of poverty in benefit receivers like ＂the decrease of expenditure＂, ＂the decrease of dependent people＂, and ＂the increase of shorten income＂ had lower percentages. The restrictions of the research resulted from the incomplete information of the benefit receivers that social workers did not fill out completely, the deficiencies of the data, and the formula that poverty spell was calculated by the period that benefit receivers received the service from the beginning to the end, which might underestimate the poverty spell. In addition, it is uncertain that every client was evaluated with unitary standards due to the elastic quality of deciding who can be benefit receivers, and this uncertainty is one of the restrictions of the research. Also, because the research included only five towns' data of benefit receivers instead of all in Chiayi city and because the reasons why benefit receivers became poor again have not been deeply discussed in the research, the future researches to focus on these two topics are advised. |
