台灣雜誌出版是屬於活潑有勁的雜誌產業，每年約有八千種以上的期刊發行。面對雜誌產業巨變的環境，以及隨著網際網路與新科技的興起，整個台灣雜誌產業是否也會像逐漸凋零的報業一般，受到能否持續生存與競爭的衝擊，這是值得我們關注的問題。 檢視目前雜誌出版雖然有一些出色的經營模式，但是，面臨各種總體環境與產業環境的衝擊，未來是否仍然合宜？這包括所謂各種環境與產業產銷因素之作用力大小的檢視，及台灣消費性雜誌現有七種經營模式之未來合宜性的檢查。為此，本研究以情境分析法（scenario analysis）結合修正式德菲法（modified Delphi method）進行專家意見調查。 研究結果發現，目前較具績效的七種經營模式在未來之合宜性程度，雖然高低有差，或在五年以內及六至十年兩個時期的合宜性前後不一，但整體而言尚具中度以上的合宜性。雖然在經營模式上並未出現結構性較大的轉變，但是因為經營環境的快速變化，雜誌出版企業經營上的挑戰日益嚴苛，如何進行產銷連結、資源整合及市場競爭策略之重新組構，都是在新的經營環境與挑戰下需要加以考量的。因此，除了現有七種經營模式之未來合宜性的檢討外，本文並對產業未來的經營模式提出一些預測性的評估。 The magazine publication in Taiwan is kind of lively and actively among the magazine industry. Approximately, there are above 8,000 sort of periodical release per year. It is realistic to the huge alteration of environment in the publishing industry, as well as the rising of internet and new developing technology. It is worth of our concern that the entire Taiwan magazine industry whether is bearable the impact of persistent existence and competition, or as gradually wither as the newspaper industry. Inspection of the current magazine publication, there are some of splendid business models indeed. However, is it still feasible in the future while facing the impact of industrial environment. Which includes the inspection of effect for all sort of environment and marketing factor such as production and sale, as well as the inspection of future feasibleness through existing seven kind of business models in Taiwan consumer magazine. Therefore, this research adopts scenario analysis combine with modified Delphi method to carry on the expert opinion investigation. According to the research result, seven kinds of business model at present with qualified performance, although the level of future feasibleness has a gap in between. Or the feasibleness is not identical all the way in both period of within the next 5 years and 6-10 years. But general speaking it still got the feasibleness, which is above the moderate. It doesn’t appear the significant modification in the constitution of business model, however the swift change of the operating environment and the challenge of enterprise operation in the magazine publication is getting pungently day by day. How to carry on the link of production and sale; resource integration, as well as the reorganization of the strategy of market competition. All need to be consideration, under the new operating environment and challenges. Therefore, besides the reviews of future feasibleness by seven kinds of business model, this article also issues some of predictive appraisals for the industrial future business models.
