長年來，台灣人民在選擇政黨時，「族群」因素扮演重要角色，然而近年來公民意識抬頭，多數年輕人開始關心起政治，選擇政黨的依據似乎與以往不同。本研究欲探討台灣人民對政黨傾向之變化、趨勢，觀察族群之政黨認同的效果變化，同時討論階級、性別與年齡等因素，對於政治傾向的影響情形。 本研究採量化研究，並以趨勢研究比較不同時間點的族群效果的差異，採用多元邏輯迴歸分析，估計自變項對依變項的影響效果。本研究分析1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2014六個年度的「台灣社會變遷基本調查」資料，估計族群因素對於政治傾向的效果，預期族群因素對於政治傾向仍具有重要意義。 本研究發現，每當遇到需要選擇立場的時候，族群因素的效果影響很大。長期被標籤化支持民進黨（本土政權）大多是社經地位較低、年紀較大的人，像是老年人、低知識份子、窮人等等，但本研究顯示，實際上是年輕人較傾向支持泛綠或者選擇中立，亦即，與其他年齡者相較，比較不挺「中國國民黨」。而在教育程度方面，我們僅能看出較低教育程度相對於其他教育程度者，有較高比例選擇中立，但是職業類別卻看不到與政治傾向有較穩定的系統性關係。 最後本研究希望族群融合的話題，不再是政治人物選舉時操弄的政治手段，能夠真正地將族群融合，在「民主選舉」這件事情上，才能有更多「理性」的選擇。 Taiwanese have chosen their party by ethnic factor for a long time. As the civic consciousness rises in recent years, young people begin to care about politics and the influence of ethnic factor may be reduced. This research discussed dynamic political orientation of Taiwanese with different class, age and sex. This study adopted a quantitatively trend research to compare the difference of ethnic effect on election at different time. A multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate the effect of independent variable on dependent variable. A six-year data (i.e. 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014) from “Basic Investigation of Taiwan Social Change” has been used to evaluate the influence of ethnic factor on political orientation. Results showed that the influence of ethnic factor on political orientation was significant. Traditionally, supporters of DPP (a local party) have been recognized as those with low social-economic status or elder people. However, the present results indicated an opposite tendency that young people prefer DPP to KMT. In addition, people with lower education status have neutral political affiliation than that for other educational status. No systematic relationship was observed for vocation on political orientation. Finally, the eternal aim of this study is to achieve ethnic fusion. We hope that ethnic factor will no longer be used as a mean tool of political manipulation. Rational choice should be the only factor in democratic election.
