瀾湄流域的合作分析：複合互賴的應用與修正

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Title:	瀾湄流域的合作分析：複合互賴的應用與修正
Other Titles:	A Cooperation Study on Lancang-Mekong: Application and Revision of Complex Interdependence
Authors:	孫國祥
Contributors:	南華大學國際事務與企業學系
Keywords:	瀾湄流域;水資源;合作;複合互賴;系統動力學 Lancang-Mekong river basin;water;cooperation;complex interdependence;systemic dynamics
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2018-12-06 15:21:51 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	水日益成為稀缺資源。本研究的目的是解釋瀾湄流域的成功河流合作。為此，本文將系統視角與國際關係理論的自由主義相結合，其結果是一份互賴領域的表列，本研究從這些領域開始探索瀾湄流域的複合互賴。為了檢驗複合互賴作為瀾湄合作的解釋，本研究選擇了一種系統視角。流域被認為是一個許多相互關聯因素的完整系統，一個複合互賴的網絡。本研究檢驗四個互賴的領域：經濟互賴、社會－環境互賴、政治互賴，以及水力發電互賴。對於每個互賴領域以一個模型來展現變數及其連結關係。由於互賴領域本身也相互關聯，因此也提出互賴的一般模式。五個互賴模型顯示瀾湄流域的連通性和互賴的極端程度。瀾湄沿岸國家具有高度互賴的經濟，它們依靠彼此以維持社會和環境之間的平衡，並且在涉及政治和水力發電時它們是高度的互賴。若將河流視為整體，而且將它作為一個系統，本研究得出結論認為，流域是一個權衡的競技場，而非競爭利益的競技場。在制定（政策）決策時，互賴建模可以有所幫助，因為它顯示長期和短期的後果，以及系統中干擾的預期和非預期後果。 Water is increasingly becoming a scarce resource. The aim of this research is to explain the successful river cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong river basin. In order to do this, it combines a systems perspective with a branch of international relations theory; liberalism. The result is a list of fields of interdependence, from which this research starts exploring complex interdependence in the Lancang-Mekong river basin. To examine complex interdependence as an explanation for Lancang-Mekong cooperation, this research opts for a systems perspective. The basin is regarded as a complete system with many elements that are interrelated, a network of complex interdependence. Four fields of interdependence are examined: economic interdependence, socio-environmental interdependence, political interdependence, and hydropower interdependence. For each field of interdependence a model is presented that visualizes the variables and their connections. And as the fields of interdependence are also interrelated themselves, a general model of interdependence is also presented. The five interdependence models show the extreme degree of connectedness and interdependence in the basin. Looking at the river basin as a whole, and seeing it as a system leads me to conclude that the basin is an arena of trade-offs rather than an arena of competing interests. Interdependence modelling can be of help when making (policy) decisions, as it visualizes both long and short term consequences, and both intended and unintended consequences of interference in the system.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International and China Studies, The M.A. Program of Asia-Pacific Studies and Public Policy Studies] NSTC Project

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