2018年地方九合一選舉，民進黨的慘敗標示著蔡英文2016年當選以來執政的錯誤，但隨後一年的情勢發展卻急轉直下，蔡英文聲勢又大幅回升。對於此一現象，坊間存在兩種觀點。第一種論點認為，是香港發生大規模抗爭，激起選民的「亡國感」，無論如何也要守護台灣主權及民主；第二種觀點則認為，是國民黨所提名的韓國瑜，才當選高雄市長就「烙跑」轉戰總統大選缺乏正當性，並在初選過程中造成國民黨內嚴重裂痕，使韓國瑜所訴求的貧富相對「剝奪感」無法充分發酵。對此，本文主張第二種觀點較為正確，是「烙跑」太討厭而不是「亡國感」太強烈，「亡國感」只是讓民進黨的支持者提早表態歸隊，他們的反中意識形態本來就比較強，本來就還是會投給民進黨候選人。本文將透過網路問卷調查驗證此一推論。 The defeat of the 2018 local election was an indication of the failure of Tsai Inn-Wen's rule since 2016. However, Tsai's approve rate was restored drastically following that defeat. There were two competing arguments to explain this development. The first theory is the worries about downfall caused by the massive protests in Hong Kong, which strengthened Taiwanese people's resolution to protect the democracy and sovereign of Taiwan. The second theory is KMT's presidential candidate, Hang Guo-Yu had no legitimacy because he was just elected as the Kaohsiung City Mayor. This caused intense competition in KMT's party primary, and Hang's call for social justice for the poor receive little response. This article supports the second theory and by two internet questionnaires.
