| 摘要: | 本研究主要目的在探討2004年第十一屆中華民國正副總統選舉期間，媒體使用、政治知識、執政者個人評價與執政團隊評價四者之間的整體關係，以及人口統計變項與政治知識對政治評價的影響力。 本研究採用「次級資料分析法」，以2002年至2004年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃（III）：民國九十三年總統大選民調案」（以下簡稱TEDS 2004P）為調查資料來源，以政治知識為中介變項，人口統計變項、媒體使用與人際傳播為外衍解釋變項，總統個人評價與政府團隊評價為內衍應變項。研究發現所有媒體中以「與他人政治討論時間」對政治知識正面影響最顯著。相較於使用其他媒體時間與總統個人/政府團隊評價之間負面的直接效果，收看電視新聞時間長短對總統個人評價與政府團隊評價均為一顯著的正面關係，且不受政治知識影響。在其餘三種大眾媒體以及人際傳播中，都因為「政治知識」使「該媒體使用時間/與他人討論時間越長，對總統個人/政府團隊評價越低」的假設大部分獲得驗證。 此外，人口變項與政治知識對總統個人與政府團隊評價各具高達近四成的解釋力。在兩個模型中具顯著影響力的人口變項及影響力大小排序亦恰好相同，認同民進黨者、獨立選民、認同台聯者、初等教育程度、中等教育程度、及低收入選民都會給予總統及政府團隊正面的評價，而外省選民與政治知識高者則對總統個人及政府團隊持負面的看法。政黨認同、教育程度、收入、省籍及政治知識均對總統個人評價及政府團隊評價有一定的影響力。
The main purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting voters’ evaluations of presidential as well as governmental performance after 2004’s presidential election. Secondary analysis was used to find out the causal relationships among variables such as media use, political discussion, political knowledge, presidential and governmental evaluations. The data was from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2002-2004 (III): The Presidential Election, 2004 (TEDS 2004P). Political knowledge was treated as mediating variable, demographic variables, media use and political discussion as independent variables, and presidential and governmental evaluations as dependent variables. The results revealed that “time spent on political discussion” had the most positive impacts on “political knowledge.” By comparison with other media use variables, variable of “time spent on watching TV news” significantly and directly affected presidential and governmental evaluations. Due to the mediating impacts by political knowledge, the more time voters spent on newspapers, the Internet, the political talk shows and political discussion, the more political knowledge voters gained, and thus the worse voters evaluated presidential and the governmental performance. In addition, several demographic variables and political knowledge explained about 40% of variance of voters’ presidential and governmental evaluations. For those who had monthly income of less than NT$45,000 or were with lower educational level, or had strong party identification with the DPP or the TSU, or claimed themselves independent voters, they all better evaluated president and the government. As for the voters from other Chinese Provinces and with high political knowledge, they did not hold any positive attitudes towards president and the government. |
